Kimberly Yánez

The democratic spirit of Venezuelans remains alive despite two decades of repression and censorship. After intense crackdowns following the disputed 2024 elections—when over 2,000 people were arrested—any form of protest or political expression was sufficient grounds for persecution. But people are back in the streets and, as of now, have not faced significant policing. Recent scenes include university students confronting authorities, retirees’ unions organizing, and large protests demanding the release of the remaining political prisoners.

Since Maduro’s capture on January 3, acting leader Delcy Rodríguez has struggled to fully reassert authority they are known for, creating limited tactical space that the Trump administration is monitoring. Regardless, analysts explain that the new space for dissent reflects external pressures on Rodríguez rather than a firm commitment to democracy.

The order to release over 800 political prisoners on January 8 and the proposed amnesty law to be discussed from February 5—after the government admitted to political violence since 1999—ease immediate tensions, signaled cooperation to Washington, and gave the regime bargaining leverage. 

At the same time, reforms opening the oil sector to private and bringing foreign investment, and the replacement of traditional allies like China and Cuba with new clients such as the U.S. and India, represent a 180° shift from Chavismo’s policies and rhetoric, which in the past had increased state control over oil to pay for diplomatic and security favors. It also signals how much ideologically contradictory policies they are willing to implement to appease the White House.   

A Narrow Window of Opportunity 

In the meantime, people are expressing a “now‑or‑never” mentality and taking over the streets to protest. Most importantly, there is a strong sense of urgency because the release of political prisoners is paramount for a democratic transition. Family members who have waited months or years outside detention centers speak of worsening conditions, torture, and the nightmare of no proof of life.

Protesters and relatives insist on the full, immediate and unconditional release of those detained for political reasons —no conditional releases that leave families in fear, no use of people as bargaining chips— arguing that only unconditional freedom answers for the human cost of the repression.

The director of the NGO that oversees political persecution in the country, Foro Penal, Alfredo Romer is worried that the announced amnesty could be overly broad and shield high‑level officials who committed violations of human rights. The NGO says any amnesty must be drafted transparently with victims’ participation and provide reparations and psychosocial support to those persecuted. 

The Venezuelan Bishops’ Conference (CEV) says it expects an inclusive debate on the law and hopes all sectors participate. CEV president Mons. Jesús González de Zárate urged dignified conditions and respect for detainees’ rights, and asked for broad participation to build agreements that guarantee civic coexistence.

The Venezuelan Program of Education-Action in Human Rights (Provea) expresses the release of political detainees has been “partial and without clear official information on the criteria, lists or conditions,” that those jailed were punished for exercising rights protected by international instruments and the Venezuelan Constitution, and that any amnesty must not obstruct victims’ rights to truth, justice and reparations.

But the process is already stained by the lack of transparency and inclusion the ruling party (Psuv) is known for. On February 5, the National Assembly, led by Rodríguez ‘brother, Jorge Rodríguez started the discussion and a preliminary draft —a mystery to the public at the time—was approved unanimously despite calling for a more open debate with different sectors of the country. 

In the session, Rodríguez urged Chavismo to ask for forgiveness. He said, “We ask for forgiveness and we must forgive as well… I do not like prisoners,” and invoked the murder of his father by a former police unit to call on deputies to reflect and, where necessary, repent. Rodríguez insisted “no victim should go unheard” and framed the measure as a step toward healing and “mending wounds.”

On Friday, February 6, deputy Luis Florido released independently an alleged draft of the the amnesty law proposal. To this, Human rights lawyer Gonzalo Himiob warned that the proposed Venezuelan amnesty law must be carefully rethought: it should not be framed as an act of clemency but as a renunciation of the state’s punitive power; it must cover not only criminal prosecutions but also administrative, labor and civil forms of political persecution; and it should include clear deadlines and a presumption of freedom for beneficiaries.

National Media is Testing the Waters

From local newspapers like La Mañana in Falcón to major TV networks such as Venevisión and radio hosts like Shirley Vernagy, journalists and media workers are testing the waters after years of self-censorship. But these moves are still not significant.

IPYS (Instituto Prensa y Sociedad) reports that Venezuela’s information space remains hostile to journalism: direct controls, administrative sanctions, public warnings and the repeated use of state force continue to intimidate reporters. Authorities are still detaining journalists, searching and forcing the deletion of devices and materials, and impeding foreign press coverage.

The organization documented the administrative closures and equipment seizures, deportations and patterns of criminalization against the press since January 3. Although some detainees were released, IPYS argues these actions are intermittent concessions rather than structural changes, and calls for the immediate release of detained journalists, an end to censorship practices and guarantees to restore plural, unrestricted access to information.

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Opposition leader, María Corina Machado calls for a faster transition, saying nine months is enough to create fair conditions and hold free elections, while the U.S. government proposes a longer timeline of 18–24 months to complete stabilization, recovery and transition before elections.

U.S. engagement, including closer diplomatic attention by envoy Laura Dogu, underscores the importance Washington places on Venezuela’s oil and democratic stability, according to Secretary of State Marco Rubio. 

Dogu informs her mission is to focus on the implementation of the three phases explained by Rubio. First, they expect to stabilize the country by restoring order and basic services; for that the U.S. would take control of some oil supplies, sell them, manage the money, and freeze assets to prevent chaos and cut off Maduro’s network. Next, Rubio believes they can recover the economy by inviting foreign investment and rebuilding institutions, while taking steps like amnesties or freeing political prisoners. Finally, the secretary envisions a democratic transition by reforming institutions, building trustworthy governance and holding free, fair elections.

In the meantime, serious obstacles remain: many opposition figures are jailed, exiled, or barred from running; there is no transparency of electoral processes; and key safeguards like independent election oversight and media freedom are limited. Although Article 233 requires Rodríguez to call presidential elections within 90 days, a calendar alone cannot create fair competition when major players are excluded.

As we speak, the factions of Chavismo are colliding and the military forces are demoralized and weakened. The alleged arrests of Maduro’s key figureheads, Alex Saab and Raúl Gorrín — who could be extradited to the U.S. — have left interior minister Diosdado Cabello and armed groups feeling threatened, as he is losing control of the repressive apparatus with U.S presence in the territory and the State Department’s bounty on his head.

For some, recent moves that could lead to a transition of power offer hope. But lasting change will require concrete, durable steps from a regime that Venezuelans and the international community do not trust and that is under scrutiny by the Trump administration, which itself faces internal conflicts and declining popularity. Without those steps, Venezuela is likely to remain trapped under a new elite led by the Rodríguez siblings, who are more than willing to stay on Washington’s good side, for now.